Bitcoin monthly one touch·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Above $85,000.00

24h volume
18.1k
346.8k lifetime
Open interest
129.7k
Spread
1,079 × 235 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
50%+8

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
50%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 53¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1060¢
  • ask50059¢
  • ask5.658¢
  • ask10057¢
  • ask7556¢
  • ask3,00052¢
  • ask10751¢
  • ask23550¢
spreadmid 49¢
  • bid1,07947¢
  • bid3,52646¢
  • bid60045¢
  • bid16144¢
  • bid5043¢
  • bid15042¢
  • bid80040¢
  • bid3,50039¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever above $ 85000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26SEP30-8500000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
28m ago50¢735bought yes
34m ago47¢7bought no
35m ago50¢30bought no
37m ago52¢0.03bought yes
37m ago50¢1bought yes
37m ago52¢89bought yes
37m ago52¢133bought yes
37m ago49¢39bought yes
37m ago53¢42bought yes
37m ago51¢41bought yes
37m ago50¢29bought yes
42m ago49¢0.97bought yes
42m ago49¢1bought yes
57m ago49¢49bought yes
1h ago44¢150bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.