Bitcoin monthly one touch·closes in 10d

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $85000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

YES means Above $85,000.00

24h volume
19.0k
348.7k lifetime
Open interest
131.1k
+131.1k over 30d
Spread
1,003 × 73 at the touch
24h range
32¢ – 53¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
42%

A YES contract costs 45¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
58%

costs 58¢

YES bid / ask
42¢ / 45¢
NO bid / ask
55¢ / 58¢
24h low 32¢24h high 53¢
Recent buying73% YES · 27% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 1Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,12956¢
  • ask1,35655¢
  • ask554¢
  • ask553¢
  • ask5052¢
  • ask3,11647¢
  • ask10746¢
  • ask7345¢
spreadmid 43¢
  • bid1,00342¢
  • bid4541¢
  • bid3,27740¢
  • bid5039¢
  • bid4,45036¢
  • bid28533¢
  • bid10032¢
  • bid1,10027¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026 is ever above $ 85000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 1 · 4:10 AM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 1 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26SEP30-8500000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2m ago42¢8.19bought no
2m ago42¢28bought no
27m ago43¢2.13bought no
59m ago44¢30bought no
1h ago48¢2.01bought yes
1h ago45¢17bought no
1h ago45¢6.17bought no
1h ago45¢30bought no
1h ago48¢30bought yes
1h ago45¢13bought no
1h ago47¢136bought no
1h ago47¢86bought no
1h ago47¢10bought no
1h ago47¢7bought no
1h ago47¢993bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.