Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
YES means Above $199,999.99
- 24h volume
- 3
- 867.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 290.4k
- −3 over 24h
- Spread
- 1¢
- 4,728 × 31.1k at the touch
- 24h range
- 2¢ – 2¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 98¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask27812¢
- ask5111¢
- ask3610¢
- ask1569¢
- ask508¢
- ask7,0465¢
- ask33.7k4¢
- ask31.1k3¢
- bid4,7282¢
- bid43.4k1¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $199999.99 starting 10/01/2025 10:00 AM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
- opened
- Oct 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
- floor
- 199999.99
- ticker
- KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-199999.99
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11h ago | 2¢ | 3 | bought yes |
| 1d ago | 2¢ | 175 | bought no |
| 1d ago | 2¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 2¢ | 1,000 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 2¢ | 1,000 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 2¢ | 1,000 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 1¢ | 55 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 2¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 2¢ | 100 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 3¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 7d ago | 2¢ | 26 | bought yes |
| 7d ago | 2¢ | 1,000 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.