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KXBTCPRICE·closes in 5mo

Will Bitcoin be above $130,000 by Apr 15, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET?

YES means By Apr 15, 2027

24h volume
279
9,197 lifetime
Open interest
7,021
Spread
3¢
159 × 3,050 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−1

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask197¢
  • ask192¢
  • ask6.2987¢
  • ask20019¢
  • ask3,05014¢
spread3¢mid 13¢
  • bid15911¢
  • bid13210¢
  • bid1219¢
  • bid808¢
  • bid3,0047¢
  • bid46¢
  • bid205¢
  • bid274¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $130000 starting Sep 22, 2026 and before Apr 15, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 22 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 15, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 8, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC
floor
130000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-130000-27APR15
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago12¢28bought no
4h ago12¢85bought no
14h ago13¢167bought yes
1d ago13¢15bought yes
2d ago13¢22bought yes
2d ago13¢333bought yes
2d ago11¢50bought no
5d ago12¢102bought yes
6d ago11¢5bought no
7d ago15¢1bought no
7d ago15¢0.05bought yes
7d ago15¢229bought yes
7d ago15¢65bought yes
8d ago15¢29bought yes
8d ago11¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.