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will Bitcoin hit price target by date·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Dec 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

YES means By Dec 11, 2026

24h volume
198
6,603 lifetime
Open interest
1,334
Spread
2¢
3,000 × 4.45 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%+2

A YES contract costs 80¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 22¢

YES bid / ask
78¢ / 80¢
NO bid / ask
20¢ / 22¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4.391¢
  • ask6.6890¢
  • ask10087¢
  • ask3,00085¢
  • ask15284¢
  • ask4283¢
  • ask10081¢
  • ask4.4580¢
spread2¢mid 79¢
  • bid3,00078¢
  • bid9373¢
  • bid10059¢
  • bid10051¢
  • bid1,75950¢
  • bid10113¢
  • bid4005¢
  • bid1291¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Dec 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 10:45 PM UTC
closes
Dec 12 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 15, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26DEC11
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
28m ago80¢3bought yes
32m ago78¢100bought yes
35m ago77¢4.45bought yes
35m ago77¢4.45bought yes
40m ago77¢63bought yes
40m ago77¢4.45bought yes
40m ago77¢4.45bought yes
40m ago77¢4.45bought yes
41m ago77¢4.45bought yes
5h ago75¢0.64bought no
6h ago77¢0.12bought yes
15h ago74¢1.91bought no
15h ago77¢2.55bought yes
1d ago78¢6.86bought no
1d ago79¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.