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will Bitcoin hit price target by date·closes in 5mo

Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Feb 5, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET?

YES means By Feb 5, 2027

24h volume
0
2,024 lifetime
Open interest
649
Spread
5¢
3,125 × 17 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
81%

A YES contract costs 85¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
19%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 85¢
NO bid / ask
15¢ / 20¢
Recent buying37% YES · 63% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Feb 5, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 10:45 PM UTC
closes
Feb 6, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 15, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-85000-27FEB05
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago82¢97bought no
1d ago83¢18bought no
1d ago83¢1.19bought no
1d ago81¢99bought no
1d ago82¢3.45bought no
1d ago86¢3.45bought yes
1d ago83¢20bought no
1d ago84¢26bought no
2d ago80¢1.45bought no
2d ago81¢100bought yes
2d ago81¢25bought yes
2d ago74¢100bought yes
2d ago75¢0.01bought yes
2d ago75¢1.47bought yes
2d ago68¢70bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.