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will Bitcoin hit price target by date·closes in 26d

Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

YES means By Oct 16, 2026

24h volume
751
12.2k lifetime
Open interest
3,546
Spread
4¢
464 × 95 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
58%−4

A YES contract costs 62¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
42%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 62¢
NO bid / ask
38¢ / 42¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask186¢
  • ask7.8585¢
  • ask9.6683¢
  • ask1.4578¢
  • ask26275¢
  • ask3,00064¢
  • ask13863¢
  • ask9562¢
spread4¢mid 60¢
  • bid46458¢
  • bid3,00057¢
  • bid10031¢
  • bid0.7525¢
  • bid10022¢
  • bid167¢
  • bid1505¢
  • bid642¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Oct 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 24 · 10:45 PM UTC
closes
Oct 17 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
May 15, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC
floor
85000
ticker
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT16
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
30m ago58¢16bought no
56m ago62¢3.14bought yes
1h ago58¢3.14bought no
1h ago62¢3.14bought yes
2h ago60¢1.62bought yes
3h ago57¢6.03bought no
3h ago62¢29bought yes
3h ago61¢16bought yes
4h ago62¢14bought yes
5h ago62¢0.15bought yes
5h ago58¢0.15bought no
7h ago60¢64bought no
8h ago60¢2.65bought yes
8h ago59¢2.23bought yes
8h ago59¢0.15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.