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Cabinet member leaving·closes in 11d

Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Oct 2026?

YES means Before Oct 2026

24h volume
6.37
4,539 lifetime
Open interest
2,620
−1.85 over 7d
Spread
4¢
250 × 5 at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 21¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%−7

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 87¢
24h low 13¢24h high 21¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 2 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-26OCT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago14¢0.02bought no
12h ago14¢1.77bought no
13h ago13¢1.43bought no
13h ago14¢1.77bought no
13h ago14¢1.38bought no
1d ago21¢18bought yes
1d ago21¢1.18bought yes
4d ago17¢3bought no
4d ago17¢5bought no
4d ago17¢2bought no
8d ago17¢5bought yes
8d ago17¢2bought yes
8d ago16¢5bought yes
8d ago16¢7bought yes
8d ago18¢245bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.