Cabinet member leaving·closes in 11d

Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Oct 2026?

YES means Before Oct 2026

24h volume: 6.37; 4,539 lifetime
Open interest: 2,620; +2,136 over 90d
Spread: 4¢; 250 × 5 at the touch
24h range: 5¢ – 88¢

Chance of YES

14%−7

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

86%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask

13¢ / 17¢

NO bid / ask

83¢ / 87¢

24h low 5¢24h high 88¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask52794¢
ask3492¢
ask5491¢
ask5990¢
ask1.521¢
ask25320¢
ask2.2419¢
ask517¢

spread4¢mid 15¢

bid25013¢
bid984¢
bid243¢
bid4822¢
bid1,0141¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources

opened: May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes: Oct 2 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXCABLEAVE-26MAY22-26OCT

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.