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Next Cabinet memeber out·closes in 28mo

Will John Ratcliffe be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

YES means John Ratcliffe

24h volume
0
4,980 lifetime
Open interest
3,154
+935 over 7d
Spread
1¢
0 × 495 at the touch
24h range
–
43 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 17, 1:00 AMSep 17, 12:00 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask31530¢
  • ask30123¢
  • ask1522¢
  • ask1,31221¢
  • ask49620¢
  • ask1,0007¢
  • ask713¢
  • ask4951¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If John Ratcliffe is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXCABOUT-26MAY22-JRAT
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 43 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago1¢1bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢65bought yes
    4d ago1¢1bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢1bought yes
    4d ago1¢100bought yes
    4d ago1¢200bought yes
    4d ago1¢67bought yes
    13d ago1¢19bought no
    13d ago1¢30bought no
    15d ago1¢1bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.