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Next Cabinet memeber out·closes in 28mo

Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?

YES means Pete Hegseth

24h volume
466
54.4k lifetime
Open interest
25.1k
−271 over 24h
Spread
4¢
1,155 × 8.68 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 26¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%−7

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 79¢

YES bid / ask
21¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 79¢
24h low 20¢24h high 26¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 20, 4:43 AMSep 21, 4:34 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23247¢
  • ask14146¢
  • ask2939¢
  • ask17533¢
  • ask25132¢
  • ask1,09127¢
  • ask15126¢
  • ask8.6825¢
spread4¢mid 23¢
  • bid1,15521¢
  • bid918¢
  • bid21412¢
  • bid1589¢
  • bid538¢
  • bid1,0337¢
  • bid1,4455¢
  • bid254¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pete Hegseth is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
May 22 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCABOUT-26MAY22-PHEG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago22¢1bought no
5h ago23¢13bought no
5h ago20¢47bought no
5h ago21¢70bought no
5h ago25¢20bought yes
5h ago26¢6.32bought yes
9h ago20¢91bought no
9h ago21¢107bought no
9h ago21¢12bought no
11h ago24¢10bought no
11h ago23¢5.38bought no
13h ago24¢35bought no
13h ago21¢5.34bought no
13h ago21¢3.76bought no
13h ago23¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.