Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?
YES means Before Dec 31, 2026
- 24h volume
- 279
- 799 lifetime
- Open interest
- 520
- +520 over 30d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 200 × 10 at the touch
- 24h range
- 30¢ – 35¢
- 6 recent trades
A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 74¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask10789¢
- ask1,23975¢
- ask26474¢
- ask15269¢
- ask667¢
- ask50035¢
- ask20032¢
- ask1031¢
- bid20026¢
- bid20010¢
- bid1023¢
- bid1,2552¢
- bid1001¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- opened
- Sep 17 · 2:30 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 31 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXCLAUDE-CLAUDE6-26DEC31
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 6 trades, 74% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | 30¢ | 200 | bought no |
| 3h ago | 31¢ | 10 | bought no |
| 9h ago | 35¢ | 69 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 26¢ | 400 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 26¢ | 20 | bought yes |
| 3d ago | 26¢ | 100 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.