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Claude Model Release·closed · NO

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?

YES means Before Aug 1, 2026

24h volume
0
242.9k lifetime
Open interest
52.1k
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO

This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Aug 1 · 3:15 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26AUG01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2mo ago1¢100bought yes
2mo ago1¢23bought yes
2mo ago1¢94bought yes
2mo ago1¢750bought yes
2mo ago1¢1bought yes
2mo ago1¢1,000bought yes
2mo ago1¢94bought yes
2mo ago1¢935bought yes
2mo ago1¢50bought no
2mo ago1¢10bought no
2mo ago1¢659bought no
2mo ago1¢333bought no
2mo ago2¢739bought no
2mo ago2¢10bought no
2mo ago2¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.