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Claude Model Release·closes in 2mo

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?

YES means Before Dec 1, 2026

24h volume
211
197.6k lifetime
Open interest
51.9k
+1,973 over 7d
Spread
1¢
2,070 × 3,924 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−1

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 4¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask22636¢
  • ask335¢
  • ask77019¢
  • ask5009¢
  • ask7777¢
  • ask26¢
  • ask2,3695¢
  • ask3,9244¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid2,0703¢
  • bid8,0212¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago4¢117bought yes
17h ago5¢94bought yes
1d ago5¢0.43bought yes
1d ago5¢5bought yes
4d ago5¢169bought yes
4d ago4¢234bought yes
4d ago4¢469bought yes
5d ago4¢117bought yes
5d ago5¢19bought yes
5d ago4¢1.08bought yes
5d ago4¢469bought yes
5d ago5¢94bought yes
6d ago5¢3bought no
6d ago5¢22bought no
6d ago5¢2.07bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.