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Claude Model Release·closes in 1mo

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?

YES means Before Nov 1, 2026

24h volume
0
211.9k lifetime
Open interest
73.1k
Spread
1¢
2,177 × 1,305 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,00014¢
  • ask22213¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask506¢
  • ask3005¢
  • ask2,2704¢
  • ask0.023¢
  • ask1,3052¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid2,1771¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago2¢434bought yes
2d ago1¢20bought no
2d ago2¢50bought yes
2d ago2¢502bought yes
3d ago2¢500bought yes
4d ago2¢9bought yes
5d ago1¢1bought no
6d ago2¢3,632bought no
6d ago2¢108bought no
7d ago4¢217bought yes
7d ago4¢2bought yes
7d ago4¢248bought yes
7d ago2¢30bought yes
8d ago1¢101bought no
10d ago1¢8.69bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.