Claude Model Release·closes in 3mo

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume: 468; 262.3k lifetime
Open interest: 66.7k; −8,446 over 30d
Spread: 2¢; 102 × 2,484 at the touch
24h range: 3¢ – 39¢

Chance of YES

6%−1

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask

4¢ / 6¢

NO bid / ask

94¢ / 96¢

24h low 3¢24h high 39¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources

Anthropic

opened: Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.