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Claude Model Release·closes in 3mo

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
468
262.3k lifetime
Open interest
66.7k
Spread
2¢
102 × 2,484 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 7¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%−1

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 96¢
24h low 3¢24h high 7¢
Recent buying12% YES · 88% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask227¢
  • ask60025¢
  • ask10024¢
  • ask1321¢
  • ask2613¢
  • ask2,3078¢
  • ask2,0747¢
  • ask2,4846¢
spread2¢mid 5¢
  • bid1024¢
  • bid13.5k3¢
  • bid7.072¢
  • bid1,0001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 16 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 12% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago5¢1.01bought yes
1h ago6¢16bought yes
1h ago6¢30bought yes
4h ago3¢56bought no
6h ago3¢131bought no
10h ago6¢7.86bought yes
13h ago3¢97bought no
13h ago6¢63bought yes
18h ago7¢56bought yes
21h ago7¢3.84bought yes
21h ago7¢7.27bought yes
1d ago7¢12bought yes
1d ago4¢1.81bought yes
1d ago4¢23bought yes
1d ago4¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.