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Claude Model Release·closes in 1mo

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?

YES means Before Nov 1, 2026

24h volume
0
15.6k lifetime
Open interest
4,795
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
151 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 91¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 20, 9:05 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5268¢
  • ask1,77662¢
  • ask30561¢
  • ask4460¢
  • ask28757¢
  • ask2542¢
  • ask1,90014¢
  • ask10013¢
spread4¢mid 11¢
  • bid1519¢
  • bid1,0448¢
  • bid1,0996¢
  • bid5955¢
  • bid2504¢
  • bid3333¢
  • bid4012¢
  • bid1721¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
closes
Nov 1 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26NOV01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago12¢6.66bought yes
6d ago12¢6.66bought yes
6d ago12¢39bought yes
7d ago9¢11bought no
9d ago12¢94bought yes
9d ago12¢13bought yes
9d ago9¢13bought no
10d ago8¢5bought no
12d ago7¢0.1bought no
12d ago11¢14bought no
13d ago12¢20bought yes
13d ago12¢67bought yes
13d ago12¢392bought yes
15d ago11¢86bought yes
17d ago13¢17bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.