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KXCLAUDE·closed · NO

Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026?

YES means Before Sep 1, 2026

24h volume
0
13.3k lifetime
Open interest
5,000
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO

This market is closed and resolved NO. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Anthropic releases Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 10 · 11:45 PM UTC
closes
Sep 1 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26SEP01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
21d ago3¢100bought yes
21d ago2¢500bought yes
21d ago2¢5bought yes
21d ago4¢23bought yes
1mo ago1¢665bought no
1mo ago1¢200bought no
1mo ago1¢1,000bought yes
1mo ago1¢10bought yes
1mo ago1¢1,000bought yes
1mo ago1¢315bought yes
1mo ago1¢810bought yes
1mo ago1¢132bought no
1mo ago1¢200bought no
1mo ago1¢1,000bought no
1mo ago1¢810bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.