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KXCONGRESSPAYINCREASE·closes in 3mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
0
380 lifetime
Open interest
322
Spread
8¢
200 × 6 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 94¢
Recent buying8% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask67060¢
  • ask52359¢
  • ask19853¢
  • ask5148¢
  • ask130¢
  • ask322¢
  • ask20015¢
  • ask614¢
spread8¢mid 10¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid2054¢
  • bid3073¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the annual base salary of all Members of Congress increases above $174,000 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This includes increases by any mechanism, including new legislation, the existing automatic cost-of-living adjustment taking effect, or a final non-appealable court order. Back-pay awards, preliminary court rulings, and raises limited to leadership positions or specific offices do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Settlement sources
opened
May 28 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCONGRESSPAYINCREASE-30-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 8% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago6¢1bought no
9d ago6¢9bought no
9d ago7¢5bought no
16d ago15¢14bought yes
18d ago15¢1bought yes
27d ago10¢11bought yes
2mo ago9¢13bought no
2mo ago10¢1bought yes
2mo ago15¢200bought no
2mo ago16¢100bought no
2mo ago17¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.