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CPI·closes in 2mo

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?

YES means Above -0.1%

24h volume
1,864
7,211 lifetime
Open interest
3,091
+2,509 over 7d
Spread
1¢
853 × 164 at the touch
24h range
87¢ – 91¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%+8

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 9¢

YES bid / ask
91¢ / 92¢
NO bid / ask
8¢ / 9¢
24h low 87¢24h high 91¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,03099¢
  • ask39698¢
  • ask1797¢
  • ask10096¢
  • ask695¢
  • ask71093¢
  • ask16492¢
spread1¢mid 92¢
  • bid85391¢
  • bid289¢
  • bid10087¢
  • bid15086¢
  • bid10085¢
  • bid10083¢
  • bid12182¢
  • bid5081¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (November 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 20 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 10 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 10 · 2:56 PM UTC
floor
-0.1
ticker
KXCPI-26OCT-T-0.1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago90¢41bought no
2h ago91¢41bought yes
2h ago90¢10bought no
2h ago91¢10bought yes
3h ago90¢16bought no
3h ago90¢10bought no
3h ago91¢24bought yes
3h ago91¢2bought yes
3h ago90¢100bought yes
3h ago89¢100bought yes
3h ago90¢50bought yes
3h ago90¢50bought yes
3h ago88¢302bought yes
3h ago88¢620bought yes
3h ago88¢67bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.