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CPI·closes in 2mo

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?

YES means Above 0.5%

24h volume
131
5,515 lifetime
Open interest
800
+323 over 7d
Spread
3¢
51 × 152 at the touch
24h range
20¢ – 20¢
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%+2

A YES contract costs 22¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 22¢
NO bid / ask
78¢ / 81¢
24h low 20¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying74% YES · 26% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5044¢
  • ask10042¢
  • ask141¢
  • ask20028¢
  • ask12327¢
  • ask1326¢
  • ask55623¢
  • ask15222¢
spread3¢mid 21¢
  • bid5119¢
  • bid1017¢
  • bid5016¢
  • bid7114¢
  • bid43112¢
  • bid1117¢
  • bid836¢
  • bid1952¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (November 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 20 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 10 · 1:25 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 10 · 2:56 PM UTC
floor
0.5
ticker
KXCPI-26OCT-T0.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 74% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago20¢31bought yes
4h ago20¢50bought yes
4h ago20¢50bought yes
1d ago18¢115bought yes
2d ago24¢200bought no
2d ago17¢23bought no
2d ago18¢100bought no
2d ago24¢1bought no
2d ago18¢29bought no
2d ago17¢100bought no
2d ago34¢44bought no
2d ago34¢133bought no
2d ago34¢125bought no
2d ago33¢100bought no
4d ago25¢17bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.