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U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $45 trillion

24h volume
0
17.7k lifetime
Open interest
6,485
+2,173 over 30d
Spread
2¢
513 × 1,829 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
88%

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
12%

costs 14¢

YES bid / ask
86¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 14¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,41098¢
  • ask10097¢
  • ask1,00097¢
  • ask22597¢
  • ask1,00094¢
  • ask20091¢
  • ask26390¢
  • ask1,82988¢
spread2¢mid 87¢
  • bid51386¢
  • bid5085¢
  • bid2583¢
  • bid20082¢
  • bid1078¢
  • bid1576¢
  • bid2575¢
  • bid570¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt increases to 45 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 30, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
45
ticker
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-45
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago88¢0.27bought yes
5d ago88¢6.71bought yes
6d ago88¢0.56bought yes
8d ago88¢1bought yes
9d ago86¢1bought no
11d ago88¢56bought yes
15d ago86¢3.53bought no
18d ago88¢1.12bought yes
19d ago88¢113bought yes
19d ago86¢1bought no
19d ago86¢61bought no
20d ago86¢0.26bought no
20d ago86¢90bought no
20d ago87¢100bought no
20d ago87¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.