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U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $47.5 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $47.5 trillion

24h volume
34
3,195 lifetime
Open interest
2,428
−12 over 24h
Spread
6¢
16 × 2,602 at the touch
24h range
47¢ – 64¢
Chance of YES
64%

A YES contract costs 64¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
36%

costs 42¢

YES bid / ask
58¢ / 64¢
NO bid / ask
36¢ / 42¢
24h low 47¢24h high 64¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢volSep 20, 10:45 AMSep 21, 4:34 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1889¢
  • ask1.3987¢
  • ask1.7680¢
  • ask1478¢
  • ask1.5275¢
  • ask6467¢
  • ask8666¢
  • ask2,60264¢
spread6¢mid 61¢
  • bid1658¢
  • bid2257¢
  • bid20056¢
  • bid6345¢
  • bid4734¢
  • bid7032¢
  • bid2,49231¢
  • bid1,58024¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 47.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 16 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
47.5
ticker
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-47.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.