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U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $50 trillion

24h volume
0
29.4k lifetime
Open interest
8,794
+2,334 over 30d
Spread
2¢
214 × 55 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 30¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 30¢
NO bid / ask
70¢ / 72¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢45¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10155¢
  • ask13154¢
  • ask14140¢
  • ask20037¢
  • ask60434¢
  • ask87232¢
  • ask7631¢
  • ask5530¢
spread2¢mid 29¢
  • bid21428¢
  • bid10011¢
  • bid9510¢
  • bid13610¢
  • bid207¢
  • bid1465¢
  • bid283¢
  • bid1,3703¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt increases to 50 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 30, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
ticker
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago29¢1.42bought no
2d ago29¢16bought no
3d ago29¢8.43bought no
3d ago32¢76bought yes
3d ago29¢14bought no
4d ago32¢16bought yes
4d ago32¢20bought yes
5d ago31¢20bought yes
5d ago32¢15bought yes
5d ago29¢28bought no
5d ago29¢2.79bought no
6d ago31¢0.61bought yes
8d ago33¢5bought no
8d ago30¢29bought no
8d ago33¢73bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.