U.S. debt growth·closes in 31mo

Will the national debt hit $52.5 trillion during the Trump Administration?

YES means $52.5 trillion

24h volume
0
2,202 lifetime
Open interest
1,613
+1,613 over 90d
Spread
64 × 35 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 82¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volJul 20Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask669¢
  • ask1,22166¢
  • ask0.3363¢
  • ask5062¢
  • ask1,00024¢
  • ask20023¢
  • ask2522¢
  • ask3521¢
spreadmid 19¢
  • bid6418¢
  • bid2,00016¢
  • bid17515¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid44
  • bid61
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the U.S. federal debt (GFDEBTN) increases to 52.5 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028 (inclusive), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 16 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
52.5
ticker
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-52.5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago21¢5bought yes
7d ago21¢10bought yes
8d ago21¢0.45bought yes
10d ago21¢5bought yes
11d ago21¢25bought yes
11d ago20¢20bought yes
12d ago20¢5bought yes
20d ago18¢1.04bought no
20d ago21¢1.04bought yes
22d ago20¢1bought yes
23d ago20¢16bought yes
23d ago20¢15bought yes
23d ago20¢4.7bought yes
24d ago20¢4.73bought yes
27d ago19¢117bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.