Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a 2028 presidential run?·closes in 26mo

Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

YES means Josh Shapiro

24h volume
0
8,268 lifetime
Open interest
5,172
+0 over 24h
Spread
200 × 1 at the touch
24h range
31 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 95¢
Recent buying31% YES · 69% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 4:47 AMSep 21, 2:47 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9.4964¢
  • ask1,43959¢
  • ask3515¢
  • ask20114¢
  • ask914
  • ask6.77
  • ask10
  • ask1
spreadmid
  • bid200
  • bid200
  • bid175
  • bid91
  • bid34
  • bid53
  • bid500
  • bid5,555
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Shapiro is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

opened
Sep 16, 2025 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JSHA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 31 trades, 31% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago1.49bought yes
4d ago0.51bought yes
7d ago55bought no
7d ago3bought no
9d ago6.81bought yes
9d ago86bought yes
9d ago10bought yes
9d ago5.87bought yes
9d ago10bought yes
9d ago100bought yes
9d ago90bought yes
25d ago14bought no
25d ago14bought yes
1mo ago498bought no
1mo ago2.12bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.