Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
YES means Josh Shapiro
- 24h volume
- 0
- 8,268 lifetime
- Open interest
- 5,172
- Spread
- 2¢
- 200 × 1 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 95¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask9.4964¢
- ask1,43959¢
- ask3515¢
- ask20014¢
- ask9148¢
- ask6.778¢
- ask107¢
- ask17¢
- bid2006¢
- bid2005¢
- bid1753¢
- bid913¢
- bid342¢
- bid532¢
- bid5002¢
- bid5,5552¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Josh Shapiro is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.
- opened
- Sep 16, 2025 · 9:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Nov 7, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JSHA
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.