KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST·closes in 19mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

YES means New Hampshire

24h volume
0
33.8k lifetime
Open interest
14.0k
Spread
172 × 12 at the touch
24h range
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%

A YES contract costs 88¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 19¢

YES bid / ask
81¢ / 88¢
NO bid / ask
12¢ / 19¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.1k99¢
  • ask1,60698¢
  • ask16397¢
  • ask490¢
  • ask50089¢
  • ask1288¢
spreadmid 85¢
  • bid17281¢
  • bid50080¢
  • bid379¢
  • bid7465¢
  • bid84764¢
  • bid7553¢
  • bid1,24852¢
  • bid75051¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If New Hampshire holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A contest counts regardless of whether the Democratic National Committee sanctions, recognizes, or gives delegate effect to it. If multiple states vote on the same day, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of tied states. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

opened
Jul 27 · 5:07 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 8, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXDEMFIRSTCONTEST-28-NH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 103¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago90¢4bought no
3d ago93¢1bought yes
3d ago94¢377bought yes
3d ago92¢3bought yes
3d ago93¢75bought yes
8d ago89¢13bought no
10d ago93¢75bought no
10d ago93¢0.37bought yes
13d ago88¢28bought yes
15d ago87¢117bought no
15d ago87¢50bought no
15d ago87¢10bought yes
20d ago79¢1bought no
25d ago84¢3bought yes
26d ago80¢0.26bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.