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Democratic presidential primaries·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
0
0 lifetime
Open interest
0
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
150 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 93¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask19357¢
  • ask32455¢
  • ask4753¢
  • ask452¢
  • ask20014¢
  • ask513¢
spread6¢mid 10¢
  • bid1507¢
  • bid2005¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 24 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXDPRESPRIMARY-28SC-GNEW
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 52¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.