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Democratic presidential primaries·closes in 26mo

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary?

YES means Mark Kelly

24h volume
0
160 lifetime
Open interest
160
Spread
8¢
0 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
2 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2008¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Mark Kelly wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 24 · 10:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
    ticker
    KXDPRESPRIMARY-28SC-MKEL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 52¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 2 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    22d ago7¢10bought yes
    28d ago6¢150bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.