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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold 45 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means 45

24h volume
4,733
223.3k lifetime
Open interest
179.1k
+48.7k over 30d
Spread
1¢
555 × 8.52 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask893¢
  • ask2,0023¢
  • ask3,0602¢
  • ask1442¢
  • ask4,5552¢
  • ask20.0k2¢
  • ask7,5132¢
  • ask8.522¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid5551¢
  • bid411¢
  • bid1541¢
  • bid3011¢
  • bid131¢
  • bid881¢
  • bid22.5k0¢
  • bid3,8830¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has exactly 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
45
cap
45
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-45
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago2¢8.52bought yes
12m ago2¢38bought yes
13m ago2¢100bought yes
13m ago2¢9.41bought yes
13m ago2¢16bought yes
13m ago2¢17bought yes
13m ago2¢1bought yes
13m ago2¢857bought yes
10h ago2¢0.23bought yes
11h ago2¢483bought yes
11h ago2¢9.64bought yes
12h ago1¢955bought no
12h ago2¢2.57bought no
12h ago2¢500bought no
12h ago2¢1.78bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.