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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means 50

24h volume
1,322
154.1k lifetime
Open interest
122.5k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
802 × 25.9k at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 14¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%+1

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
24h low 13¢24h high 14¢
Recent buying26% YES · 74% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 4:17 AMSep 21, 1:40 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12121¢
  • ask10620¢
  • ask2519¢
  • ask10.6k18¢
  • ask33517¢
  • ask11.2k16¢
  • ask11.5k15¢
  • ask25.9k14¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid80213¢
  • bid2,76312¢
  • bid100.3k11¢
  • bid1010¢
  • bid1078¢
  • bid1668¢
  • bid788¢
  • bid7,0007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has exactly 50 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
cap
50
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 104¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 26% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago14¢34bought yes
2h ago14¢337bought yes
4h ago14¢135bought yes
7h ago13¢300bought no
8h ago14¢168bought yes
8h ago14¢67bought yes
10h ago13¢20bought no
10h ago13¢75bought no
10h ago13¢105bought no
13h ago13¢0.87bought no
13h ago13¢5.42bought no
21h ago13¢36bought no
21h ago13¢39bought no
1d ago13¢11bought no
1d ago13¢64bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.