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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means Above 52

The seat-count distribution puts most mass at 51–53 for Democrats, which is a majority. Below 48 is a 2¢ tail. Democrats are 65¢ to hold more governorships after November.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
32.6k
937.1k lifetime
Open interest
603.3k
+13.5k over 24h
Spread
1¢
18 × 24.9k at the touch
24h range
35¢ – 38¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%+1

A YES contract costs 37¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 64¢

YES bid / ask
36¢ / 37¢
NO bid / ask
63¢ / 64¢
24h low 35¢24h high 38¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 5:56 AMSep 21, 5:12 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask51446¢
  • ask16045¢
  • ask1542¢
  • ask25041¢
  • ask5,30240¢
  • ask8239¢
  • ask29138¢
  • ask24.9k37¢
spread1¢mid 37¢
  • bid1836¢
  • bid52935¢
  • bid6,25534¢
  • bid62033¢
  • bid9,40632¢
  • bid9,31431¢
  • bid10.0k30¢
  • bid12.7k29¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has above 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
53
cap
100
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-ABOVE52
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 105¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
53m ago36¢13bought yes
1h ago36¢2.6bought yes
1h ago36¢5bought no
1h ago36¢13bought no
1h ago35¢24bought no
2h ago37¢5.16bought yes
2h ago37¢39bought yes
2h ago37¢2.58bought yes
3h ago37¢112bought yes
3h ago37¢129bought yes
3h ago36¢5bought no
3h ago37¢26bought yes
3h ago37¢102bought yes
3h ago36¢28bought yes
4h ago35¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.