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Democratic Senate seats·closes in 4mo

Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress?

YES means Below 45

24h volume
3,549
350.7k lifetime
Open interest
270.1k
+8,964 over 7d
Spread
1¢
18 × 23 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−1

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3514¢
  • ask5,0904¢
  • ask2574¢
  • ask5404¢
  • ask6314¢
  • ask2074¢
  • ask493¢
  • ask233¢
spread1¢mid 3¢
  • bid182¢
  • bid5,1602¢
  • bid3,1432¢
  • bid301¢
  • bid11¢
  • bid331¢
  • bid4541¢
  • bid141¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 20, 2025 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
0
cap
44
ticker
KXDSENATESEATS-27-BELOW45
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago3¢24bought yes
12m ago3¢8.42bought yes
4h ago3¢2.9bought yes
4h ago3¢10bought yes
4h ago3¢21bought yes
6h ago3¢100bought yes
6h ago3¢26bought yes
6h ago3¢34bought yes
12h ago2¢67bought no
12h ago2¢26bought no
12h ago2¢15bought no
12h ago2¢25bought no
12h ago2¢54bought no
12h ago2¢40bought no
12h ago2¢25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.