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Earthquake in California·closes in 3mo

Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
635
470.1k lifetime
Open interest
227.8k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
12.2k × 715 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+1

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 2:27 AMSep 21, 1:27 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,40313¢
  • ask1212¢
  • ask10311¢
  • ask4139¢
  • ask1267¢
  • ask2,9266¢
  • ask3,3385¢
  • ask7154¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid12.2k3¢
  • bid5,0022¢
  • bid10.3k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
56m ago4¢234bought yes
9h ago3¢114bought no
10h ago4¢2.34bought yes
21h ago4¢142bought yes
23h ago4¢119bought yes
23h ago4¢23bought yes
1d ago3¢1.02bought no
1d ago4¢41bought yes
1d ago4¢70bought yes
2d ago3¢47bought no
2d ago4¢32bought yes
2d ago4¢183bought yes
2d ago4¢933bought yes
2d ago4¢7.41bought yes
2d ago4¢110bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.