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Earthquake in California·closes in 2mo

Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
9,180
547.0k lifetime
Open interest
253.6k
+22.1k over 30d
Spread
1¢
9,261 × 748 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%+1

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying87% YES · 13% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volOct 6Nov 5

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,01011¢
  • ask319¢
  • ask108¢
  • ask3517¢
  • ask2,0306¢
  • ask8,3775¢
  • ask1,7304¢
  • ask7483¢
spread1¢mid 3¢
  • bid9,2612¢
  • bid12.3k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
8
ticker
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 87% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9m ago3¢49bought yes
54m ago3¢62bought yes
1h ago3¢94bought yes
1h ago3¢14bought yes
1h ago3¢49bought yes
2h ago3¢9bought yes
2h ago3¢286bought yes
2h ago3¢0.11bought yes
2h ago3¢38bought yes
2h ago3¢62bought yes
3h ago2¢1.01bought no
3h ago3¢1.01bought yes
3h ago2¢1.01bought no
4h ago3¢0.56bought yes
4h ago3¢0.64bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.