EC compact 270·closes in 16mo

Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2028?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
0
277 lifetime
Open interest
95
+0 over 7d
Spread
5 × 90 at the touch
24h range
1 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 97¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask2,21891¢
  • ask24790¢
  • ask20010¢
  • ask5
  • ask90
spreadmid
  • bid5
  • bid400
  • bid1,050
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, a state or jurisdiction has "enacted" NPVIC legislation when such legislation has been signed into law by the governor, has become law without the governor's signature after the constitutional waiting period, or has been enacted by veto override; or has otherwise become law. The effective date of the law is not relevant; only that it has been enacted. Electoral votes are counted based on the apportionment in effect at the time of when the relevant law is enacted. States that have withdrawn from the compact through repeal legislation are not counted toward the total. If a state's membership in the compact is invalidated by a final court ruling before Jan 1, 2028, that state's electoral votes are not counted. Conditional adoptions (e.g., Nevada's requirement for voter approval) are not counted until all conditions are satisfied. Examples that WOULD resolve the market to Yes: 270 or more electoral votes worth of states have enacted NPVIC legislation before Jan 1, 2028 States totaling 269 electoral votes have joined, and one additional state with at least 1 electoral vote enacts NPVIC legislation before Jan 1, 2028 Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: States totaling 269 electoral votes have enacted NPVIC legislation by Jan 1, 2028 States totaling 270 electoral votes have passed NPVIC legislation in both chambers but governors have not yet signed

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 14 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXECCOMPACT-30-28
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19d ago2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.