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How low will Ethereum fall this year?·closes in 3mo

Will Ethereum reach below $1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Below $1,250.00

24h volume
0
445.6k lifetime
Open interest
185.4k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
805 × 103 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 91¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 2:43 PMSep 21, 4:08 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask17924¢
  • ask3,00016¢
  • ask27315¢
  • ask2014¢
  • ask21313¢
  • ask5512¢
  • ask12011¢
  • ask10310¢
spread1¢mid 9¢
  • bid8059¢
  • bid3,9338¢
  • bid1356¢
  • bid1105¢
  • bid2264¢
  • bid1703¢
  • bid1572¢
  • bid82.0k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Ethereum price is measured using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index (ETHUSD_RTI) with a trimmed mean calculation that excludes the top 20% and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute values between market issuance and the target time. The market resolves based on whether the trimmed mean price reaches the specified level by the deadline. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Price data from CF Benchmarks is considered authoritative and revisions after expiration do not affect market resolution.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 1 · 5:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
cap
1250
ticker
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1250
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago8¢3bought no
2d ago9¢100bought no
2d ago8¢345bought no
2d ago10¢0.65bought no
2d ago9¢104bought no
2d ago11¢422bought no
2d ago11¢14bought no
2d ago11¢2,100bought no
2d ago12¢500bought no
2d ago12¢15bought no
2d ago12¢15bought no
2d ago12¢15bought no
3d ago11¢70bought no
3d ago11¢4bought no
3d ago12¢0.24bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.