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EU countries exiting·closes in 40mo

Will Germany vote to leave the EU before 2030?

YES means Germany

24h volume
47
2,254 lifetime
Open interest
1,562
Spread
4¢
83 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%+2

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
Recent buying85% YES · 15% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,29847¢
  • ask2545¢
  • ask21638¢
  • ask47636¢
  • ask9835¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask1225¢
  • ask1,0005¢
spread4¢mid 3¢
  • bid831¢
  • bid860¢
  • bid3030¢
  • bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Germany votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXEUEXITCOUNTRY-30-GER
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 85% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago5¢9bought yes
5h ago5¢38bought yes
15h ago1¢0.43bought no
7d ago4¢16bought no
7d ago12¢16bought yes
8d ago10¢10bought yes
8d ago10¢5bought yes
8d ago11¢29bought yes
10d ago4¢43bought no
10d ago5¢210bought no
10d ago6¢10bought no
10d ago5¢2.1bought no
10d ago6¢5bought no
11d ago13¢0.43bought yes
11d ago12¢210bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.