EU countries exiting·closes in 40mo

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

YES means Hungary

24h volume: 0; 4,132 lifetime
Open interest: 3,450; +0 over 24h
Spread: 8¢; 1,000 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range: –; 2 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

92%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask

1¢ / 9¢

NO bid / ask

91¢ / 99¢

Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask16073¢
ask28459¢
ask20047¢
ask1,41246¢
ask9445¢
ask67644¢
ask3043¢
ask1,0009¢

spread8¢mid 5¢

bid1,0001¢
bid2031¢
bid5500¢
bid102.0k0¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXEUEXITCOUNTRY-30-HUN

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
2mo ago	8¢	2.94	bought yes
2mo ago	2¢	1	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.