EU countries exiting·closes in 40mo
Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?
YES means Spain
- 24h volume
- 0
- 1,442 lifetime
- Open interest
- 1,334
- Spread
- 4¢
- 83 × 1,000 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
Chance of YES
5%
A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
NO
96%
costs 99¢
YES bid / ask
1¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 99¢
What Galdor thinks
An independent read of this market
1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Not enough history to chart.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
- ask87344¢
- ask20042¢
- ask43841¢
- ask1638¢
- ask2035¢
- ask2330¢
- ask1225¢
- ask1,0005¢
spread4¢mid 3¢
- bid831¢
- bid2660¢
- bid2,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources
- opened
- Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXEUEXITCOUNTRY-30-SPA
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.