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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 1.50%

24h volume
0
2,390 lifetime
Open interest
1,181
−31 over 30d
Spread
5¢
6.81 × 223 at the touch
24h range
–
29 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%

A YES contract costs 98¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 7¢

YES bid / ask
93¢ / 98¢
NO bid / ask
2¢ / 7¢
Recent buying75% YES · 25% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask51699¢
  • ask22398¢
spread5¢mid 96¢
  • bid6.8193¢
  • bid1092¢
  • bid81091¢
  • bid10090¢
  • bid16281¢
  • bid2080¢
  • bid1364¢
  • bid6463¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 1.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
1.5
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T1.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 29 trades, 75% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago97¢15bought yes
4d ago93¢6.01bought no
4d ago93¢2.06bought no
4d ago93¢6.93bought no
14d ago97¢15bought yes
14d ago97¢22bought yes
18d ago96¢2bought yes
1mo ago92¢0.34bought no
1mo ago91¢8.71bought no
1mo ago91¢3.51bought no
1mo ago91¢4.44bought no
1mo ago92¢1bought no
1mo ago93¢9.29bought no
1mo ago91¢7.1bought no
1mo ago93¢2.61bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.