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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 3.50%

24h volume
0
7,487 lifetime
Open interest
1,750
+537 over 90d
Spread
6¢
32 × 12 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
97%

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
3%

costs 11¢

YES bid / ask
89¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 11¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢100¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11399¢
  • ask7898¢
  • ask3397¢
  • ask4096¢
  • ask1295¢
spread6¢mid 92¢
  • bid3289¢
  • bid20088¢
  • bid4481¢
  • bid8780¢
  • bid6177¢
  • bid4276¢
  • bid3275¢
  • bid40574¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
3.5
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T3.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago97¢0.01bought yes
2d ago93¢82bought yes
2d ago97¢7.96bought yes
2d ago92¢15bought yes
2d ago92¢0.11bought yes
2d ago92¢0.01bought yes
2d ago92¢11bought yes
3d ago80¢21bought no
3d ago92¢21bought yes
4d ago88¢0.15bought yes
4d ago89¢13bought yes
4d ago82¢13bought no
4d ago84¢9bought yes
4d ago85¢17bought yes
4d ago86¢44bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.