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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 3.75%

24h volume
0
2,360 lifetime
Open interest
750
+0 over 24h
Spread
20¢
800 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
85%

A YES contract costs 92¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
15%

costs 28¢

YES bid / ask
72¢ / 92¢
NO bid / ask
8¢ / 28¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢80¢90¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 21, 3:57 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask49.9k99¢
  • ask24596¢
  • ask5.1595¢
  • ask10092¢
spread20¢mid 82¢
  • bid80072¢
  • bid5.3271¢
  • bid10070¢
  • bid6.8865¢
  • bid7264¢
  • bid20863¢
  • bid1061¢
  • bid20060¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
3.75
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T3.75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago85¢1.16bought yes
4d ago85¢0.58bought yes
5d ago83¢5.95bought yes
6d ago66¢5bought no
9d ago75¢18bought yes
9d ago71¢1.05bought yes
9d ago72¢6bought yes
9d ago76¢100bought yes
10d ago48¢2bought no
10d ago74¢85bought yes
10d ago73¢100bought yes
10d ago73¢15bought yes
14d ago73¢5bought yes
18d ago62¢1bought yes
18d ago61¢13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.