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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 4.00%

24h volume
8
4,641 lifetime
Open interest
1,264
−8 over 24h
Spread
15¢
5.04 × 1 at the touch
24h range
71¢ – 71¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
71%+5

A YES contract costs 83¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
29%

costs 32¢

YES bid / ask
68¢ / 83¢
NO bid / ask
17¢ / 32¢
24h low 71¢24h high 71¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢90¢volSep 20, 6:04 AMSep 21, 4:21 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,94598¢
  • ask77697¢
  • ask30096¢
  • ask25295¢
  • ask20090¢
  • ask1589¢
  • ask184¢
  • ask183¢
spread15¢mid 76¢
  • bid5.0468¢
  • bid6967¢
  • bid5.9166¢
  • bid49265¢
  • bid164¢
  • bid1061¢
  • bid80160¢
  • bid1259¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
4
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
16h ago71¢7bought yes
16h ago71¢1bought yes
2d ago66¢1bought no
3d ago65¢15bought no
3d ago66¢4bought no
3d ago66¢1.87bought no
3d ago72¢2.42bought yes
3d ago72¢2.69bought yes
3d ago72¢15bought yes
3d ago67¢4bought no
3d ago66¢0.23bought no
3d ago66¢2.09bought no
3d ago66¢3.91bought no
3d ago66¢4bought no
3d ago68¢5.77bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.