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Fed funds rate·closes in 4mo

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?

YES means Above 4.25%

24h volume
0.61
1,444 lifetime
Open interest
618
+0 over 24h
Spread
26¢
7.14 × 5 at the touch
24h range
29¢ – 29¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%+1

A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 72¢

YES bid / ask
28¢ / 54¢
NO bid / ask
46¢ / 72¢
24h low 29¢24h high 29¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢30¢40¢50¢60¢volSep 20, 7:06 AMSep 21, 5:14 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask21573¢
  • ask3,15066¢
  • ask5265¢
  • ask30064¢
  • ask1,49857¢
  • ask8556¢
  • ask1.2955¢
  • ask554¢
spread26¢mid 41¢
  • bid7.1428¢
  • bid527¢
  • bid25926¢
  • bid77225¢
  • bid1122¢
  • bid21321¢
  • bid50020¢
  • bid6.1218¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 27, 2027 · 6:55 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 27, 2027 · 7:05 PM UTC
floor
4.25
ticker
KXFED-27JAN-T4.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago29¢0.61bought no
3d ago29¢5bought no
3d ago28¢5bought no
4d ago50¢5bought yes
4d ago56¢0.71bought yes
4d ago30¢0.61bought yes
4d ago26¢2bought no
4d ago25¢28bought no
4d ago24¢4.61bought yes
4d ago30¢0.39bought yes
9d ago24¢0.39bought yes
9d ago21¢100bought yes
9d ago20¢100bought yes
9d ago22¢73bought yes
9d ago23¢33bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.