Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

How it resolves

Resolves YES only if the FOMC raises the target range by exactly 25bps at the October 28, 2026 meeting (per federalreserve.gov). It is one of five mutually exclusive buckets (cut >25, cut 25, hold, hike 25, hike >25); only one can pay out. If the meeting is cancelled, the "maintain rate" bucket wins instead, so an unusual cancellation would flip this to NO regardless of underlying conditions.

What the tape says

Price has moved sharply from 0.23 (Aug 22) to 0.56-0.57 now, with the jump concentrated Sept 17-18, 2026, right after the Fed's Sept 16 hike and a Goldman Sachs note calling for another hike in October. Spread is tight (55/56, 1pt), depth is solid (~$5-28k per level on both sides, ~$70k total each side), and recent taker flow is overwhelmingly YES-side (99% yes contracts in the last window), indicating the move up is being driven by buyers, not a stale level. This looks like a fast, well-informed repricing after a genuine news shock rather than noise.

What would change this

• A cooler-than-expected September or early-October CPI/PCE print could push the Fed to skip October and wait for December, when a fresh Summary of Economic Projections is due.
• Political pressure from the Trump administration against further hikes could delay action to avoid hiking twice in a row this close to midterms.
• A shift in the labor market (rising unemployment) could tip the Fed back toward a hold despite the current hawkish dot plot.
• The Oct 28 meeting could in theory be cancelled or disrupted, which under Kalshi's rules would auto-resolve the 'hold' bucket YES and this market NO regardless of the economic case for a hike.