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Fed meeting·closes in 10mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
0
8,057 lifetime
Open interest
4,465
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
100 × 49 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
76%

A YES contract costs 78¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
24%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 78¢
NO bid / ask
22¢ / 24¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢75¢80¢volSep 20, 6:39 AMSep 20, 11:05 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,71291¢
  • ask58990¢
  • ask3089¢
  • ask288¢
  • ask3,95583¢
  • ask1,07782¢
  • ask1,29079¢
  • ask4978¢
spread2¢mid 77¢
  • bid10076¢
  • bid14175¢
  • bid6273¢
  • bid4072¢
  • bid8071¢
  • bid10964¢
  • bid28861¢
  • bid2459¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 28, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jul 28, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 108¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago76¢0.94bought no
4d ago78¢0.94bought yes
4d ago76¢12bought no
4d ago76¢42bought no
4d ago76¢25bought no
4d ago75¢14bought no
4d ago76¢86bought no
4d ago76¢14bought no
4d ago76¢20bought no
4d ago77¢0.03bought no
4d ago76¢3.91bought no
4d ago79¢10bought yes
4d ago78¢1bought yes
4d ago78¢1bought yes
5d ago76¢14bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.