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Fed meeting·closes in 6mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?

YES means Fed maintains rate

24h volume
0
6,599 lifetime
Open interest
2,449
+243 over 7d
Spread
1¢
204 × 1,496 at the touch
24h range
66¢ – 72¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
67%

A YES contract costs 67¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
33%

costs 34¢

YES bid / ask
66¢ / 67¢
NO bid / ask
33¢ / 34¢
24h low 66¢24h high 72¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask41888¢
  • ask7087¢
  • ask67475¢
  • ask67473¢
  • ask35672¢
  • ask30070¢
  • ask268¢
  • ask1,49667¢
spread1¢mid 67¢
  • bid20466¢
  • bid4861¢
  • bid10060¢
  • bid29256¢
  • bid12044¢
  • bid96643¢
  • bid50042¢
  • bid6,47140¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-H0
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago67¢4.37bought yes
3d ago66¢278bought no
3d ago66¢1bought no
3d ago67¢1bought no
3d ago69¢2bought no
3d ago69¢6bought no
3d ago69¢92bought no
4d ago67¢27bought no
6d ago72¢40bought no
9d ago69¢100bought no
9d ago66¢99bought no
9d ago68¢179bought no
10d ago80¢1bought yes
10d ago84¢97bought yes
10d ago79¢2bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.